NQI Analysis: Robert Bales. Kandahar, Afghanistan (11.03.2012)
Tomorrow marks the twelfth anniversary of one of the darkest days in the War in Afghanistan
Who is Robert Bales?
The opening paragraph via Wikipedia:
Image: Robert Bales in 2011 (source: Wired)
1. Does the situation meet the FDA Blackbox warning rule: ‘BEHAVIOUR THAT IS UNUSUAL?’
What caught my attention: Reports of a massacre by a single US soldier had been circulating around the Middle East. This article in the Atlantic Journal from the day after the events detailed the confusion. Afghans Want to Know if U.S. Soldier Acted Alone. Excerpt:
In Afghan and regional media, the most pressing question about the horrific killings of 16 Afghan civilians, allegedly by a rogue U.S. soldier, is whether the shooter acted alone. Today, Afghan officials said that nine of the 16 victims were children and some of the bodies were charred. In an interview with Fox News, Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby said the suspected shooter is a father in his mid-thirties who had been deployed to Iraq twice.
Questions remain. This morning, Afghanistan's largest online news portal, Khaarma Press, reported that the killings have brought U.S.-Afghan relations to an "all-time low" with President Hamid Karzai issuing an "angry statement" denouncing the "unforgivable action." Afghan lawmakers have begun raising doubts that just one man carried out the killings. "It is not possible for only one American soldier to come out of his base, kill a number of people far away, burn the bodies, go to another house and kill civilians there, then walk at least 2 kilometers and enter another house, kill civilians, and burn them," said Abdul Rahim Ayubi, a lawmaker from Kandahar province. He noted that the houses targeted were more than one mile apart. Kandahar parliamentarian Mullah Sayed Mohammed Akhund told The Wall Street Journal that local villagers witnessed more than one solider during the night and Afghan soldiers said they heard simultaneous shootings coming from different locations. While U.S. officials insisted that there's no evidence suggesting more than one shooter was involved, The Journal notes that the U.S. Embassy in Kabul seemed to open the possibility that additional accomplices could be involved, issuing a statement saying that "the individual or individuals responsible for this act will be identified and brought to justice."
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2. Was the person(s) exposed to antimalarials. If YES… what type, duration and were there multiple exposures?
YES. Mefloquine on at least two deployments
1st Deployment: Nov-03 to Nov-04: Iraq with the Second Battalion, Third Infantry Regiment, Stryker Brigade. Antimalarials prescribed at that time – Mefloquine
2nd Deployment: 2006-2007 (extended to 15-months): Iraq with the Second Battalion, Third Infantry Regiment, Stryker Brigade. Antimalarials prescribed at that time – Unknown but not mefloquine (quietly dropped for Iraq deployments in 2004 after the Fort Bragg suicide cluster)
3rd Deployment: 2009-2010 (10-months): Iraq with the Second Battalion, Third Infantry Regiment, Stryker Brigade. Antimalarials prescribed at that time – Not required. Iraq was declared malaria free in 2008.
4th Deployment: 2011-2012 (approx. 3-months): Afghanistan with the Second Battalion, Third Infantry Regiment, Stryker Brigade. Antimalarials prescribed at that time – Mefloquine
It should be noted that the US Army does not acknowledge that Staff Sergeant was prescribed mefloquine during his Afghanistan deployment. Via the American Legion. An anti-malaria drug may have inflicted permanent neurological injuries on some servicemembers. Excerpt:
Mefloquine came to market in 1989 as a replacement for chloroquine, which was no longer effective against malaria. However, the FDA cautioned people to stop taking the drug if they experienced “acute anxiety, depression, restlessness or confusion.” The drug was widely used by U.S. troops in Somalia in the 1990s, those sent to Iraq until about 2004 and those serving in Afghanistan until about 2013. Soldiers took the medication once a week – a ritual that gave rise to terms like “Mefloquine Monday,” “Whacko Wednesday” and “Psycho Sunday.” And yet there’s often no mention of it in their individual medical records, which is crucial evidence for any future claims.
So far during my quinoline related research the only country in the Five-Eyes community that has been reasonably honest in its antimalarial programs and record keeping is… New Zealand.
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3. How was the person(s) mental health?
Robert Bales was cleared by the US Army to deploy to Afghanistan
There were historical issues, the usual stresses of deployment and reported money problems prior to Afghanistan. Soldiers go through a battery of tests prior to deployment and Staff Sergeant Robert Bales passed all on those tests including physical, mental health and the Automated Neuropsychological Assessment Metrics, or ANAM test.
An investigation by both NPR and ProPublica in 2011 identified several issues with the ANAM program. These include:
The people who invented ANAM and stood to make money from it were involved in the military's decision to use it, prompting questions about the impartiality of the selection process. No other tests received serious consideration. A report by the Army's top neuropsychologist circulated last year to key members of Congress labeled the selection process "nepotistic."
The Pentagon's civilian leadership has ignored years of warnings, public and private, that there was insufficient scientific evidence the ANAM can screen for or diagnose traumatic brain injury. The military's highest-ranking medical official said the test was "fraught with problems." Another high-ranking officer said it could yield misleading results.
Compounding flaws in the ANAM's design, the military has not administered the test as recommended and has rarely used its results. The Army has so little confidence in the test that its top medical officer issued an explicit order that soldiers whose scores indicated cognitive problems should not be sent for further medical evaluation.
Top Pentagon officials have misrepresented the cost of the test, indicating that because the Army invented the ANAM, the military could use it for free. In fact, because the military licensed its invention to outside contractors, it has paid millions of dollars to use its own technology.
The military has not conducted a long-promised head-to-head study to make sure the ANAM is the best available test, delaying it for years. Instead, a series of committees have given lukewarm approval to continue using the ANAM, largely to avoid losing the data gathered so far.
Unfortunately, the only sure fire, 100% way to see if a soldier has Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE), Acquired Brain Injury (ABI) or Chronic Quinoline Encephalopathy (CQE, also referred to as Neuropsychiatric Quinism) is via an autopsy.
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4. Were there any confounding variables?
YES. Multiple (and I’ve likely missed things)
Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy playing sport: There has been a lot of talk about the amount of ABIs that Robert Bales received during service, but he was also an accomplished Middle Linebacker playing high school football in the 1980s.
Robert Bales didn’t complete University: This is discussed in the literature.
Troubled Broker career: A lot was made of this and a finding by FINRA was made against him including unauthorised swaps and churn. Swaps are unethical (also illegal). Low level churn trades were quite common in the 1990s (commissions were paid on purchases of stocks, in Australia it was 4%). His boss at Diversified Capital had systemic findings of fraud/churning made against him. The market was crazy in 1999 and there were a lot of sharks. It should be noted that Robert and his family also lost money.
1st assault incident in 2002: Robert Bales was charged with assault of his girlfriend.
2nd assault incident in 2002: A second incident, this time Robert was arrested after an altercation with a security guard at a Tacoma casino. He was charged with a misdemeanour, fined $300 and underwent 20-hours of anger management counselling.
Paranoia after Iraq 2004: First reports of Robert Bales suffering from paranoia start upon his return from Iraq after his first deployment. Kari, his wife, thought nothing of it, at least not then: “I just thought, ‘Oh, that's just part of loving a soldier. He's taking care of his family.’
WIA in 2007: Wounded in Action, Battle of Najaf, Iraq.
2008 Hit & Run: Robert Bales mentions a hit & run incident in 2008 where he was briefly detained. Also, the Guardian mentions another 2008 incident where the Washington Sheriffs Department were involved. They stated that Robert Bales was extremely intoxicated at the time.
Snipers are a strange lot: If a regular Army battalion has anything approximating Special Forces, it is the Sniper. They are a bit ‘out-there’. A personal observation.
Exposed to multiple IEDs: IED exposures and a history of mefloquine are red flags. Robert Bales was exposed to IEDs, although the exact number and exposures are contested.
Headaches in 2010: Robert Bales reported having severe headaches in 2010. There is reasonable evidence to support the theory that headaches and mental health episodes including suicidal ideation, suicide and even psychosis are linked to both TBIs and Neuropsychiatric Quinism.
TBI in 2010: Robert Bales was involved in a Humvee rollover while deployed to Iraq during his 2009-2010 deployment. He was treated for a TBI and medicated. His pre-deployment ANAM test in 2011 failed to discover a TBI from that incident.
PTSD: He may have had PTSD prior to his deployment to Afghanistan but there was no formal diagnosis.
Multiple Deployments: Robert Bales deployed to Iraq on three separate deployments totalling approximately 37-months, then was about 3-months into his fourth deployment prior to the Kandahar Massacre. Four deployments in nine-years is a lot.
Steroid Use: Later charges against Robert Bales were laid by the US Army including abuse of steroids, Bales has stated that he took stanozolol, an anabolic steroid. First thoughts are fuel on an already burning fire.
Prodromal warnings: Paranoia: Obsessing over a cut down tree for days then taking 8-hours to chop it to pieces with a hand axe?
Alcohol Consumption: There are reports of excessive drinking (what soldier doesn’t drink). On the night of the 11th March 2012, he did consume a number of drinks (he reported drinking six-seven JDs & diet coke). Mefloquine and alcohol don’t mix.
Sleeping Pills: “Just before midnight, Bales went back to his room and swallowed a handful of over-the-counter sleeping pills.”
Insomnia: Robert Bales was suffering from insomnia and couldn’t sleep in the days leading up to the incident. Insomnia is an accepted condition linked to mefloquine and one of the keys signs to watch.
Infatuation with death: Just hours before the killings: “Who cares if I die? Bales said, according to testimony Blackshear later provided to Army investigators. My life isn't worth as much as yours. It doesn't matter if I step on an IED. I'm 38, I've lived a life, and if I get blown up, it's so much less tragic than some 21-year-old kid with all that promise ahead of him.”
Amnesia or Lariam Derangement: Robert Bales cannot remember burning the bodies, even though evidence exists of bodies having burn marks. Only two explanations make any sense: two or more assailants or amnesia. One of the side effects of mefloquine is amnesia. Another is Lariam Derangement.
The “Flip”: Robert Bales calls it the switch. “He recognized the face of Na'ikmarga, the old woman who had struggled with him before running, and shot her in the head, killing her. Then, he says, he felt something “switch” inside him. He sprayed a fusillade of bullets, wounding four…”
Destruction of Evidence: Openly killing people with knives and weapons with potential witnesses (both Afghani and US) then ham-handedly trying to burn the evidence is just behaviour that is unusual.
An International Incident: From the moment Robert Bales was detained to now, the investigation has been problematic. An Afghanistan soldier was killed just trying to secure the crime scene.
He became a barber in Fort Leavenworth: Anything to get near a blade?
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5. Was there a specific trigger?
Most Likely
From his own account it was the wounding of Navy Petty Officer, John Asbury who lost his leg in an IED blast that Robert Bales was overwatch for that was the final straw.
6. Other considerations?
YES
Robert Bales joined at 28. For the Army, this is OLD
Image: “There are four types of people who join the military…” (source: Jack Reacher, 2012)
The US military has spent a lot of time and effort pointing the finger at Robert Bales as a deranged killer, a madman who broke the rules of war. Snipers are a bit crazy, right?
When I read Robert Bales backstory, I saw a guy who needed a job in 2001, wanted a change and after the events of 11th September decided to join up. He was even thinking about a discharge after his second deployment but got offered the Snipers course.
“I was gonna get out, and I didn't,” he says. “I really wish I had, but I didn't.”
The Bales family were planning for a posting to Germany or Italy, not war-crimes in Afghanistan
In March 2011, in a time capsule now long deleted, Kari Bales wrote of her top posting choices:
Germany (“best adventure opportunity); Italy (“2nd best adventure opp”); Hawaii (“nuff said”); Kentucky (“we would be near Bob’s family”) and Georgia (“to be a sniper teacher, not because it is a fun place to live”).
Wherever they went, Kari Bales said, she hoped to rent out their house in Lake Tapps, Washington. She added:
“So that we would have it to come back to when our adventure is over”
Three days before the shootings Kari Bales put the house up for sale.
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ASSESSMENT
I’m personally certain but the evidence is tainted by too many confounding factors. The assessment is PROBABLE.
Robert Bales is a self-confessed and criminally charged war-criminal. A murderer of women and children by his own hand. Charged by the US Army he will no doubt spend the rest of his days in Fort Leavenworth. In my opinion, he should never be let out.
He is also sick. I believe he suffers from Neuropsychiatric Quinism, the worst sort.
I’m reminded of a quote by Dr. Hannibal Lector (via Thomas Harris)
We live in a primitive time, don't we, Will? Neither savage nor wise. Half measures are the curse of it; any rational society would either kill me or put me to some use. Do you dream much, Will? I think of you often. Your old friend, Hannibal Lecter
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UPDATES
7.06.2024: Reviewed/Updated: Headline name amendment. Sub headline amended. Major rewrite utilising the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine approach to reviewing mefloquine related deaths (2017). References updated
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REFERENCES
Bloomberg (23.03.2012) Bales Had Troubled Broker Career Before Allegations [https://web.archive.org/web/20140313001844/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-23/bales-had-troubled-broker-career-before-war-crimes-allegations.html] Page accessed 7.06
CNN (20.05.2004) Military's use of malaria drug in question [https://edition.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/05/19/lariam/] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Dao, J (18.03.2012) At Home, Asking How ‘Our Bobby’ Became War Crime Suspect [https://web.archive.org/web/20151010201608/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/us/sgt-robert-bales-from-small-town-ohio-to-afghanistan.html?pagewanted=all] New York Times. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Flegenheimer, M (17.03.2012) Sergeant’s Wife Kept a Blog on the Travails of Army Life. The New York Times
Groeger, L (20.03.2012) Afghan Soldier Likely Took a Brain Test Riddled with Problems [https://www.propublica.org/article/afghan-soldier-likely-took-a-brain-test-riddled-with-problems] ProPublica. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Hudson, J (12.03.2012) Afghans Want to Know if U.S. Soldier Acted Alone [https://web.archive.org/web/20150511081950/http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/afghans-want-to-know-if-u-s-soldier-acted-alone-20120312] National Journal. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Miller, G (15.08.2013) A Gruesome War Crime Renews Concerns About a Malaria Drug's Psychiatric Side Effects. [https://www.wired.com/2013/08/mefloquine-robert-bales/] Wired. Page accessed 10.03.2024
Nevin, R (25.09.2013) Mefloquine: The Military's Suicide Pill [https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mefloquine-the-militarys_b_3989034] Huffington Post. Page accessed 7.06.2024
NPR (18.03.2012) For Suspect In Afghan Attack, A Praised Record [https://www.npr.org/2012/03/18/148852249/for-suspect-in-afghan-attack-a-praised-record] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Olsen, K (18.07.2019) An anti-malaria drug may have inflicted permanent neurological injuries on some servicemembers [https://www.legion.org/magazine/246284/mefloquine-Mondays] American Legion. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Quotes (2024) Jack Reacher, 2012 [https://www.quotes.net/mquote/1023402] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Sapien, J (28.11.2011) Testing Program Fails Soldiers, Leaving Brain Injuries Undetected [https://www.propublica.org/article/testing-program-fails-soldiers-leaving-brain-injuries-undetected] ProPublica. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Serrano, R (21.03.2012) Robert Bales: 2002 assault case involved casino guard [https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-xpm-2012-mar-21-la-na-nn-robert-bales-assault-20120321-story.html] The LA Times. Page accessed 7.06.2024
The Guardian (23.03.2012) Robert Bales to be charged with 17 counts of murder [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/22/robert-bales-17-counts-murder-afghanistan] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Vaughan, B (21.10.2015) Robert Bales Speaks: Confessions of America’s Most Notorious War Criminal [https://www.gq.com/story/robert-bales-interview-afghanistan-massacre] GQ. Page accessed 7.06.2024
Wikipedia (2024) Chronic traumatic encephalopathy [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_traumatic_encephalopathy] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Wikipedia (2024) Robert Bales [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bales] Page accessed 7.06.2024
Wikiquote (2002) Red Dragon (film) [https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Red_Dragon_(film)] Page accessed 7.06.2024